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TUESDAY'S FREE PLAY

As for the comp plays, I'm on a 486-442-14 roll the past 546 days (7-3 since Thursday) despite losing with Monday's play on Texas State.

Sorry, but I'm in a lot of pain today so no Video Report as I remain day-to-day. As usual when there's no video you can find the free pick in this space.

Today I'm backing FLORIDA (-8) at home vs. South Carolina.

At first glance I was in love with Florida tonight since the Gators owed me after costing me money when they lost 57-53 at South Carolina on January 18, a night they were 0-for-17 with 3-pointers.

But then I started researching the game and my lust turned into like.

I knew the Gators had lost starting center John Egbunu (7.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg) to a torn ACL last week. But I wasn't aware one of his backups, freshman Gorjok Gak, was still sidelined with a foot sprain.

Compounding Florida's injury woes: leading scorer Canyon Berry (13.2 ppg) suffered a sprained ankle in Saturday's win at Miss State. The senior forward did not practice Sunday or Monday and is considered a game-time decision.

Completing this trifecta of bad news is the fact the Gators were lucky to win at Miss State, 57-52, considering they turned the ball over 16 times. Point guard Kasey Hill ran his miscue total to 15 over the past three games and tonight he faces a South Carolina squad that leads the SEC in turnovers forced per game at 17.3.

With all that being said, I would still rather side with Florida though because you know Berry is going to try to play and the Gators have won eight in a row and so desperately want revenge tonight. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are coming off a 71-62 loss at Vandy - their third overall in four games - that was preceded by an 83-76 setback at home to Arkansas. Momentum is clearly not in their corner as they arrive in Gainesville. 

 


 

10 of 15 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
212-166-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
  
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
10-4
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past five years combined

Most Recent Release

1/18/15 - Seattle/New England Teaser - Winner
 

 
103-74-7 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past six seasons


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

88-63-3 Record

 


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Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

Today's Complimentary Selection

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Help Charity Play of the Week Discount Picks
Time Teams Score Stat Open Hilton Grande Carib CRIS Coast
College Basketball - College Basketball - Tuesday, February 21, 2017
6:00 PM 501 Rhode Island
502 La Salle
67
56

Final
-3½
147½
-3½
147½
-3½
-4-15
147½
-3½
147½
-3½
149
6:00 PM 503 Purdue
504 Penn State
74
70
OT
Final
-7-22
146½u15
-7½
147
-7
-7
147u15
-7-22
146½u15
-7½
147
7:00 PM 505 Oklahoma
506 Baylor
54
60

Final
137
-13-05
137
-12½
137
-12
136½
-12½
137
-13-05
137
-13
7:00 PM 507 Clemson
508 Virginia Tech
70
71

Final
-1
154o15
154
pk
154o15
pk
154
pk
-1
154o15
153½
-1
7:00 PM 509 Auburn
510 LSU
98
75

Final
-3½
171½
-3½
172
-3½
173
-3½
170o15
-3½
171½
-3½
172
7:00 PM 511 South Carolina
512 Florida
66
81

Final
136½
-7½-05
136½
-7½
136
-7½
136½
-8-05
136½
-7½-05
136½
-8
7:00 PM 513 Northern Illinois
514 Central Michigan
89
66

Final
166o15
-3-15
167
-3½

-3½
165o15
-3-05
166o15
-3-15
167½
-4
7:00 PM 515 Western Michigan
516 Toledo
61
56
OT
Final
158½u18
-5½
158
-5½

-5½
158½
-5½
158½u18
-5½
158½
-5½
7:00 PM 517 Kent State
518 Buffalo
77
69

Final
153½
-7-08
153½
-7
 
-7
153½
-7
153½
-7-08
154
-7
7:00 PM 519 Ohio
520 Miami Ohio
79
62

Final
-7
148½u15
-7
148½
-6½-15
-6½-15
148½
-7
148½u15
-7
149
7:00 PM 521 Eastern Michigan
522 Ball State
72
79

Final
153½
-2½-08
154
-2½

-2½-15
153½
-2½
153½
-2½-08
154½
-3
7:00 PM 523 Cleveland State
524 Detroit
83
91

Final
-2½-15
147
-2½
146½
-2½
 
-2½
146o15
-2½-15
147
-2½
147½
7:00 PM 525 Wright State
526 Northern Kentucky
76
83

Final
149o15
-3-15
149
-3
 
-3
148½o15
-3
149o15
-3-15
149
-3
7:00 PM 527 Youngstown State
528 Oakland
72
101

Final
163
-13½-15
164
-13½

-13½
164
-14
163
-13½-15
164
-13½
7:00 PM 529 George Mason
530 Dayton
70
83

Final
145
-12½
145
-12½

-12
144½
-12½
145
-12½
145
-12½
8:00 PM 531 Wisc Milwaukee
532 Valparaiso
61
67

Final
135
-13½
135½
-13½
 
-13½
135½o15
-13½
135
-13½
135½
-14
8:00 PM 533 Wisc Green Bay
534 Illinois Chicago
87
79

Final
-2½
160½u15
-2½
160
-2½-05
-2½
161u15
-2½
160½u15
-2½
160½
8:00 PM 535 Evansville
536 Wichita State
83
109

Final
141½
-21
141½
-21

-21
141
-21
141½
-21
141½
-21
8:00 PM 537 Davidson
538 Richmond
76
84

Final
150
pk
149½
pk
-1
149o15
-1
150
pk
149½
pk
8:00 PM 539 Nc State
540 Georgia Tech
71
69

Final
145½
-2½-14
145½
-3

-3-05
146u15
-2½
145½
-2½-14
146
-3
8:00 PM 541 St. John's
542 Marquette
71
93

Final
165
-9½
165
-9½
165½
-9½
165o15
-9½
165
-9½
165
-9½
8:05 PM 543 Northwestern
544 Illinois
50
66

Final
-2½
134½
-2½
135
-2½
135
-2½
135
-2½
134½
-2½
134½
9:10 PM 545 Indiana
546 Iowa
90
96
OT
Final
pk-15
160
-1
159½
159½
pk
158½o15
pk
pk-15
160
159½
pk
9:00 PM 547 Kentucky
548 Missouri
72
62

Final
-16½-15
154
-16½
154
-17
154½
-16
154
-16½-15
154
-16½
154½
9:00 PM 549 Mississippi
550 Mississippi St
87
82
OT
Final
151½o15
-2½
151½
-2½
151½
-2½
152u15
-1½
151½o15
-2½
152
-2
9:10 PM 551 Akron
552 Bowling Green
65
66

Final
-6
153
-6
153½
-5½
 
-6
153½
-6
153
-6
154
9:05 PM 553 East Carolina
554 Tulane
76
73

Final
141
-1½
140½
-2
140½
-2
139½o15
-2-05
141
-1½
140
-2
10:10 PM 555 Colorado State
556 New Mexico
68
56

Final
143½o12
-1-15
143½
-1

pk
143
-1½
143½o12
-1-15
143
-1
College Basketball - Added Game - Tuesday, February 21, 2017
7:00 PM 557 Monmouth
558 Fairfield
82
62

Final
-5½-15
160
-5½
159½
-5½
-5½
160
-5½-15
160
-6
159
College Basketball - College Basketball - Wednesday, February 22, 2017
6:30 PM 701 Michigan
702 Rutgers
    -8-05
129½
-7½
 
 
 
-7½
 
-8-05
129½
-7½
130
6:30 PM 703 Vanderbilt
704 Tennessee
    144½
-3½
 
-3
 
 

-3-15
144½
-3½
144
-3
7:00 PM 705 Saint Louis
706 Va Commonwealth
    132½
-21-05
 
-21½
 
 

-21½-05
132½
-21-05
130½
-21½
7:00 PM 707 Northern Iowa
708 Indiana State
    126½
-1

pk
 
 

pk
126½
-1
-1
124½
7:00 PM 709 So Illinois
710 Illinois State
    129u15
-9-15

-10½
 
 

-10½-05
129u15
-9-15
129½
-10½
7:00 PM 711 TCU
712 Kansas
    150
-13-05
 
-13
 
 

-12½
150
-13-05
149½
-13
7:00 PM 713 Depaul
714 Georgetown
    141½
-13-15

-13
 
 
 
-13½
141½
-13-15
142½
-13½
7:00 PM 715 Pittsburgh
716 Wake Forest
    157½o15
-6

-6
 
 

-6
157½o15
-6
156½
-6
7:00 PM 717 Xavier
718 Seton Hall
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7:00 PM 719 St. Bonaventure
720 St. Joseph's
    -5
146½
-5½
 
 
 
-5½
 
-5
146½
-5½
146
7:00 PM 721 Fordham
722 Duquesne
    137
-1½
 
-1
 
 
 
-1
137
-1½
135½
-1
7:00 PM 723 Duke
724 Syracuse
    -4-05
149½u15
-4
 
 
-4
-4-05
149½u15
-4
149
7:00 PM 725 Central Florida
726 Temple
    136
-2-15

-2
 
 
 
-2
136
-2-15
133½
-2
8:00 PM 727 Drake
728 Loyola Chicago
    142o15
-12-05

-12½
 
 
 
-12
142o15
-12-05
143½
-12
8:00 PM 729 Missouri St
730 Bradley
    -2½
133½
-2½
 
 
 
-2½
 
-2½
133½
-2½
134
8:30 PM 731 Minnesota
732 Maryland
    142
-4
 
-4
 
 

-4½
142
-4
141
-4
8:30 PM 733 Texas A&m
734 Arkansas
    148½
-5

-5
 
 

-5
148½
-5
147½
-5
9:00 PM 735 Oklahoma State
736 Kansas State
    151½
-2½
 
-2½
 
 

-2-15
151½
-2½
153½
-2½
9:00 PM 737 Providence
738 Creighton
    150
-8
 
-8
 
 

-8
150
-8
147½
-8
9:00 PM 739 Connecticut
740 Houston U
    132
-7-05
 
-6½
 
 
 
-6½
132
-7-05
132
-6½
9:00 PM 741 Unlv
742 Air Force
    144
-3½

-3½
 
 

-3½
144
-3½
144½
-4
9:00 PM 743 Oregon
744 California
    -4
134
-3½
 
 
-3½-15
-4
134
-3½
130½
9:00 PM 745 Louisville
746 North Carolina
    154
-5½-15

-6
 
 

-6
154
-5½-15
152½
-6
9:00 PM 747 Butler
748 Villanova
    144
-9½
 
-10
 
 
 
-10
144
-9½
141
-10
10:00 PM 749 Utah State
750 San Jose State
    143½o15
-1

-1½
 
 
 
-1
143½o15
-1
144
-1
10:00 PM 751 Cal Irvine
752 Cs Fullerton
    -5½
138½
-5
 
 
 
-5½
-5½
138½
-5
137
10:00 PM 753 Boise State
754 Nevada
    153
-5-05

-5½
 
 

-5½-05
153
-5-05
152½
-5½
11:00 PM 755 Fresno State
756 San Diego State
    135½
-8-05

-8½
 
 
 
-8
135½
-8-05
135½
-8
11:00 PM 757 Oregon State
758 Stanford
    133½
-14
 
-13½
 
 
 
-13½
133½
-14
132½
-13½
College Basketball - Added Games - Wednesday, February 22, 2017
7:00 PM 759 Nc Greensboro
760 Mercer
    135½o15
-1½-05

-1½
 
 

-1½
135½o15
-1½-05
135
-2
7:00 PM 761 Western Carolina
762 The Citadel
    169½
-3½-15

-3½
 
 
 
-4
169½
-3½-15
167
-3½
7:00 PM 763 Wofford
764 VMI
    -7½-05
154½
-7
 
 
 
-7
 
-7½-05
154½
-7
152
7:00 PM 765 Furman
766 E Tennessee St.
    142½u15
-6½-15

-7
 
 

-7
142½u15
-6½-15
141½
-7
7:00 PM 767 Manhattan
768 Rider
    152o15
-6½
 
-6
 
 

-6½
152o15
-6½
152
-6
8:00 PM 769 Tennessee Chat
770 Samford
    -3½
148
-3½
 
 
-3½
-3½
148
-3½
147½
8:00 PM 771 North Dakota St
772 Oral Roberts
    -2
147
-1½
 
 
-2
-2
147
-1½
146½
9:00 PM 773 Nebraska Omaha
774 Denver
    162½
-5
 
-5
 
 
 
-5
162½
-5
161½
-5
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