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SUNDAY'S FREE PICK

My apologies, but I've been fighting a case of bronchitis and another bout of anemia so I'm going to take some more time off from doing the Video Report since A) I feel like death warmed over and B) I've got no voice anyway. For the time being this is where you're going to find the daily freebies.

As for the comp plays, I'm on an 821-775-34 roll (19-11 L/30) the past 953 days following despite Saturday's loser on Milwaukee (Run Line).

For Sunday I'm switching sides and backing the Phillies (-115) in the rubber game of the series at Miller Park with Aaron Nola over Chase Anderson.

A little disclosure first: I would have taken Houston on the Run Line today at Kansas City, but even laying -1 1/2 runs the Astros were too costly at -165.

Back to the Phillies, who scored a 4-1 win yesterday despite whiffing 14 times and going 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position. Their offense has largely been missing in action for weeks, but today they face Chase Anderson, who has rarely resembled the emerging ace who went 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA for the Brewers a year ago.

Now Anderson is coming off an outstanding performance against the Cubs on Tuesday at home as he silenced Chicago with seven innings of one-hit, shutout ball, but that only lowered his ERA in seven Miller Park starts to 5.06 on the season. In 37.1 home innings he's allowed 33 hits with 11 of them clearing the fences.

Philadelphia counters with Aaron Nola, who is 7-1 with a 2.30 ERA in his last 10 starts. The 25-year-old right-hander is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA in four career outings against the Brewers. Two of them have come in Milwaukee and his ERA in them is 2.08.
 
Despite yesterday's loss the Brewers are still on an 11-4 roll at home while the Phillies have won only five of their last 15 on the highway. But in today's game Philadelphia has the clear pitching advantage so why not back the road team in the deciding game of the series at this cheap chalk price.

 


 

11 of 16 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
229-181-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
  
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
11-6
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past 7 years combined
 

 
115-84-8 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past seven seasons


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

128-98-3 Record

 


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do NOT release plays everyday


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Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

Today's Complimentary Selection

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Mathew Parker, Sean Michaels

Matt Rivers,

Dom Chambers (NHL) and Gabe DuPont (NHL) 

do NOT release plays everyday


Upgrade From One Package To Another at Anytime

Instant Rebates Available Upon Upgrades!


Help Charity Play of the Week Discount Picks
Time Teams Score Stat Open Westgate 5 Dimes Pinnacle CRIS Carib
Monday, June 18th - NATIONAL LEAGUE
7:05 PM
951 STL
952 PHI
    -112
8½u20
8½o15
-108
8½o15
-109
8½o12
-108
8½o15
-109
8½o15
-110
7:05 PM
953 MIL
954 PIT
    -145
8½o20
-115
9u20
-120
9u20
-118
8½o25
-123
9u20
-125
9u20
8:05 PM
955 LOS
956 CUB
    -115
-105
-112
8½o15
-108
8½o15
-111
8½o11
-115
8½o15
8½o15
-110
8:40 PM
957 NYM
958 COL
    -130
-120
9½u15
-120
-124
9½u08
-126
9½u15
-120
9½u15
10:15 PM
959 MIA
960 SFO
    7½u19
-145
7o20
-155
7o20
-154
7o18
-151
7o20
-153
7o15
-155
Monday, June 18th - AMERICAN LEAGUE
7:10 PM
961 CWS
962 CLE
    +170
-205
8½o25
-280
8½o15
-275
8½o09
-273
8½o19
-270
8½o15
-285
8:10 PM
963 TAM
964 HOU
    7½o19
-290
7o20
-280
7o15
-275
7½u25
-271
7o19
-278
7½u25
-300
8:15 PM
965 TEX
966 KAN
    9½o15
-110
-108
9½o15
-110
9½o20
-109
9½o16
-110
9½o15
9½o15
-110
Monday, June 18th - INTERLEAGUE
10:05 PM
967 ARI
968 LAA
    -115
8½u20
7½u20
-114
7½u20
-113
7½u15
-113
7½u20
-116
7½u20
-115
7:05 PM
969 NYY
970 WAS
    -140
9o20
-122
9o25
-124
9o25
-121
9o25
-125
9½u25
-120
9o25
Tuesday, June 19th - NATIONAL LEAGUE
7:05 PM
901 MIL
902 PIT
               
7:05 PM
903 STL
904 PHI
               
8:05 PM
905 LOS
906 CUB
               
8:40 PM
907 NYM
908 COL
               
10:15 PM
909 MIA
910 SFO
               
Tuesday, June 19th - AMERICAN LEAGUE
7:05 PM
911 SEA
912 NYY
               
7:10 PM
913 CWS
914 CLE
               
8:10 PM
915 TAM
916 HOU
               
8:10 PM
917 BOS
918 MIN
               
8:15 PM
919 TEX
920 KAN
               
Tuesday, June 19th - INTERLEAGUE
7:05 PM
921 BAL
922 WAS
               
7:05 PM
923 ATL
924 TOR
               
7:10 PM
925 DET
926 CIN
               
10:05 PM
927 ARI
928 LAA
               
10:10 PM
929 OAK
930 SDG
               
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