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UPDATED NFL NUMBERS THRU WEEK 17

About 12 years ago I noticed that SU winners were an amazing ATS play through the first 10-12 weeks of the NFL season. We're talking somewhere between an 85-90% cover mark on average. Of course if it was that easy to simply pick straight-up winners we would all own private islands in the Caribbean, right? 

Normally the trend starts to fade at that 10-12 week mark. Not this year. Not even close. In fact four weeks ago the SU Winners were a Perfect 14-0 ATS. That was a first this season and on the heels of going 14-1 ATS the week prior!

Within those numbers I've also found some interesting subsets that I've discussed over the years in my Video Reports. This season, the SU/ATS numbers got off to a slower start (13-3, 12-4 first two weeks). Week Five they turned in their worst performance of the season (10-5-1 ATS), but they rebounded strong since with records of 12-2, 11-2, 13-2, 11-3, 11-2-1, 13-2, 14-1, 14-0, 12-2, 13-3, 14-2 and 12-4.   


  • Through 17 weeks of play SU winners are 212-41-2 ATS (84.0%)

  • Underdogs are 131-120 (52.2%) overall. In Week 14 they bottomed out at 4-10 following a six-week stretch where they went 50-35. However, they went 7-9 each of the past each weeks 

  • FYI - The dogs have gone 12-4, 9-7, 9-7, 8-6, 7-9, 6-8, 6-7, 10-3, 10-4, 9-5 , 7-8, 8-7, 6-8, 4-10, 7-9, 7-9 and 7-9. As you can see, however, everything is cyclical; nothing lasts forever. Damn good thing, too, because when dogs go on 50-35 spurts only two things are happening and neither of them are good. Books are making money and gamblers are getting hammered because basic human instinct dictates that bettors gravitate toward favorites.

  • 91 of those 131 dogs (69.5%) have won outright (52 the L/10 Weeks), which is an astounding number and again lends credence to my theory that you should consider a secondary, smaller play on a game if you you're getting a significant +money takeback on a dog that you think might win.

  • 84 of those 131 pups (64.1%) have been road dogs (43 the L/9 Weeks)

  • The road team team went 11-5 ATS on Thursday night (5-1 L/6).

  • The Under closed on an 11-3 roll on Thursday night.

  • The favorite is 6-2 L/8 Sunday night games after a stretch of 8 straight covers for the underdog.

  • The home team is 5-1 L/6 Sunday night games after the visitor had covered the previous seven.

  • The home team is 11-7 ATS on Monday night overall with the visitor covering four of the last six games.

  • The dog is on a 10-4 ATS roll on Monday night (0-3 L/3 weeks)

  • The Under is 10-2 in the L/12 Monday night games. The Over was 5-1 through the first six Mondays. 

  • The home favorite covered both Tuesday night games

  • The Under is 3-0 in Saturday games



 


 
303-241-15 NFL Roll
past eight years combined
  
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
169-135-11 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past eight seasons
- including 4-1 last 5 Super Bowls - 


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

188-158-3 Record

 


Payment Types


Discount packages

365 PLAYS
$1,995
365 PLAYS - EVERY SPORT

Best Package Offered

$199 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players

2-Part Payment Plan Available at Time of Purchase



How Do My New Packages Work?

In September of 2018, I decided to change my strategy for releasing plays. Since I created these sites some 15+ years ago, I've had a play every single day. But I changed the way I'm doing things because I feel it will only increase my winning percentage while boosting the value of your package over the short- and long-term.

Previously you purchased a 7, 30, 60 or 100-day package.

Now, however, you purchase 7 plays, 30 plays, 60 plays or 100 plays.

So let me rundown some quick bullet points for you:
  1. One thing that doesn't change: the only game you get is the game I'm playing.
  2. On those days where a card is weak and I just "like" a game, but don't really love it, I'm taking a pass and not issuing a release. In the past I would have released a lower-rated 5 dime play perhaps. Although I certainly won more than my share of them, I believe I can make even more money by avoiding games I like and instead focusing just on those that I love.
  3. So, what happens when I take a pass - which, fyi, will rarely, if ever, be on a Saturday or Sunday or any huge weeknight in hoops - if you have a package? Let me give you an example below:
  4. In the old style packages, you were buying a 30-day package, which meant you got 30 plays in 30 days. Now, however, you buy 30 plays which might be fulfilled over 35 days, or 38 days. You get ALL 30 plays, but it takes more than 30 days because I'm going to be even more selective while trying to boost my winning percentage.
  5. Bottom line: From this point forward when you buy a package from me you're buying 7 Plays, 30 Plays, 60 Plays or 100 Plays - not days - because I want to make every single play count and by being even more selective I believe I can win more with higher-rated selections along the way.
  6. One last thing: you don't have to do anything. The packages will be automatically adjusted whenever I take my first pass and the time will be reflected when you login.
  7. FYI - All the instant rebates still apply as listed below.
100 PLAYS
$999

100 PLAYS - ALL SPORTS

 

Nothing held back!

 

$149 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players

 

2-Part Payment Plan Available at Time of Purchase

60 PLAYS
$779
60 PLAYS - ALL SPORTS

$100 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players
30 PLAYS
$479
30 PLAYS - ALL SPORTS

Nothing held back!

$50 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players
7 PLAYS
$189

7 PLAYS - EVERY SPORT

FREE 1 Day All Access Pass
Free
1 DAY TOTAL ACCESS
$109

7 DAYS OF TOTAL ACCESS
$449
30 DAYS OF TOTAL ACCESS
$999

All Sports Included - Nothing Further to Buy!


(Any "Guarantee" applying to Guaranteed Plays

and Resulting Free Service is NOT included)


Sean Michaels, Chuck O'Brien,

Matt Rivers, Scott Delaney, Jay McNeil,

Karl Garrett (NHL) and Gabe DuPont (NHL) 

do NOT release plays every day


Upgrade From One Package To Another at Anytime

Instant Rebates Available Upon Upgrades!


Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

Who is Al DeMarco?

Been there, done that, seen it all.     

       

That pretty much sums up my 25+ years in this business!     

       

25 years in a business that most guys are lucky to make it 25 months.     

       

The secret to my success? To be honest, there is no one "secret," no magic elixir, but rather a commitment to winning which means a commitment to working 365 days a year.     

       

Being a handicapper is not a part-time job. Now, those of you reading this, the gamblers of this world, I understand that you are not professional gamblers and obviously you do this on recreational basis and cannot devote your life to wagering. But that's what I'm here for; that's what you pay me for.     

       

There are two types of handicappers in this business: The first are great salesmen who excel at separating you from the money in your wallet and could care less about picking winners. The second are guys who know how to make clients money by winning consistently over the long haul through effective money-management techniques and an intuitive sense of knowing when to press and go for the jugular with big plays - especially when your playing with your bookmaker's money.     

       

Listen, in my 25 years in this business I've seen more scam artists and con men than you can believe. A few of these relics - the dinosaurs from the 800 phone room age - are still around trying to make a buck online. You know the type; they tell you something is "absolutely free" with the same conviction that makes you look twice when they claim the sky is blue.     

       

Rest assured, what you see here at my site is what you get. My plays are ONLY available online. And these are the ONLY plays I've got each day. There is no "better" package available at a higher cost like so many other guys offer at their sites or by phone. What you see is what you get; end of story.     

       

No one - and I mean NO ONE - wins every day in this business, and anyone who claims to is a LIAR. As I always tell my clients, I will go on streaks, both good and bad, just like the players and teams I analyze daily. But the key for me - and my customers - is that I expect to turn a net profit for them over the long term. And making money over the course of season or a year, etc., is what matters most.     

       

A little bit more about me....     

 

  • I'm currently the COO and General Manager for the industry's largest group of subscriber-based information websites
  • I hosted The Football Insiders NFL Pregame Show on FoxSports.com from 2007-14
  • I was the featured NFL & College Football Analyst on Comcast SportsNet Chicago and SNY-New York in 2008-10 and on Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia in 2010-11
  • I was a featured contributor at MSNBC.com   
  • I created, hosted and syndicated the national sports talk show The Friday Night Quarterback in 1990-91    
  • I created, published and edited the weekly football newsletter The Players Preference Playbook from 1991-96
  • I was a Contributing Editor at the Sports and Gaming Newswire from 1991-96
  • I was Managing Editor and News Director for the Sports Network Wire Service from 1984-89 where I coordinated the coverage of two Olympic games

Nice resume - and there's a lot more - but the past doesn't count in this business and that's why I laugh when I hear or read about a handicapper bragging about some contest they won 13 years ago. Who cares?       

       

Enough about me because all that really matters is whether I can win more than I lose over the long haul. I'm not here to sell you anything; I'm here to make you money and no one is putting a gun to your head. The decision to let me help you is yours and yours alone.