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UPDATED NFL NUMBERS
About 12 years ago I noticed that SU winners were an amazing ATS play through the first 10-12 weeks of the NFL season. We're talking somewhere between an 85-90% cover mark on average. Of course if it was that easy to simply pick straight-up winners we would all own private islands in the Caribbean, right?
Within those numbers I've also found some interesting subsets that I've discussed over the years in my Video Reports. This season, the SU/ATS numbers got off to a slower start (13-3, 12-4 first two weeks) and are coming off their worst week of the season (10-5-1). Still, 79.8%, as you will see below, isn't too shabby.
- Through five weeks of play SU winners are 63-16-1 ATS (79.8%)
- Underdogs are 45-33 (57.7%)
- FYI - The dogs have gone 12-4, 9-7, 9-7, 8-6 and this past week, 7-9. Everything is cyclical; nothing lasts forever.
- 31 of those 45 dogs (68.9%) have won outright
- 30 of those 45 pups (66.7%) have been road dogs
- The road team is 5-0 ATS on Thursday night (Dogs 3-0; Favs 2-0)
- The dog is 4-1 ATS on Sunday night games (4 straight covers with 3 of them winning outright)
- The Over is 4-1 on Sunday night games
- Home favorites are 3-1 on Monday night games
- The home team is 4-1 ATS on Monday night games overall
- The Over is 4-1 on Monday night
A 3rd Straight Top-Rated 15-Dime
National Championship Winner Delivered
as Alabama crushed Ohio State as forecasted
- and here's what I told all my clients -
Before we get to the meat and potatoes, let me say that the biggest mistake gamblers make is they treat "big" games like this one different than others. In reality, Ohio State-Alabama might be for all the marbles, but it's just another game with a 50-50 proposition of winning, no different than a Sun Belt game being played on a Wednesday night in October.
Back to your regularly scheduled programming....
You know how the Super Bowl has that extra week between the conference championship round and the big game? It's for all the media fluff, but it also gives teams a chance to decompress.
Too bad there wasn't an extra seven days between Ohio State's game with Clemson and tonight's showdown with Alabama because the Buckeyes could have used it.
For a solid year beating the Tigers in revenge was Ohio State's sole focus, and earning that rematch in the College Football Playoffs Semifinals - and delivering with a dominant performance - was like their Super Bowl. There is absolutely no way they match that fever pitch again tonight even with the national title at stake.
Reflecting on Ohio State's rout of Clemson....
- The Tigers couldn't run the ball, but Alabama will tonight with Najee Harris and that will open the play-action pass game. And you know how good the Tide is with Mac Jones running the show and DeVonta Smith always getting open.
- Quarterback Justin Fields was hurt in the Clemson game. It's a national secret as to whether he's 100 percent recovered 10 days later. His legs are such a huge part of his game. Will he run with the reckless abandon that makes him so dangerous ? If not, that takes away a huge part of the Ohio State offense.
- Alabama's defense is SEC battle-tested and much better than Clemson's. And Notre Dame's defense is better than Ohio State's. The Tide put 31 points on the board in nine drives against the Irish. That pales in comparison to the 52 points on 12 drives they tallied against Florida in the SEC Championship game, but it got the job done.
And now the great unknown: Are there any Covid-19 issues for Ohio State? We won't find out until an hour or so before kickoff and you know there have been problems their past couple of games.
This is Nick Saban's best, well-rounded Alabama team. It's taken all shots and stood tall. Ohio State beat Clemson. And Dabo's team wasn't as good as it was two years ago and this season's squad would have lost by 35 to Joe Burrow and LSU last January.
I was the ONLY everyday analyst in this company
to give you LSU over Clemson in the
2019 National Championship Game in
- and here's what I told all my clients -
You might have noticed I'm the ONLY everyday analyst (and one of three guys in all with Sean Michaels and Steve Budin's Cali-Cartel being the others) on LSU. To be honest, I'm shocked because the Clemson team playing tonight is NOT the Clemson team we saw a year ago.
Don't let a great comeback against Ohio State convince you Clemson is a great team. Damn good certainly. But the Buckeyes were a so-so athletic team from the plodding Big Ten who jumped on the Tigers early. Clemson never should have been put in the position of needing such a big comeback and a miracle endzone interception to stave off Ohio State.
And naysayers be damned, but the truth of the matter is Clemson played NO ONE this year other than Ohio State. Now it's true you can only beat who is on your schedule and that didn't penalize these Tigers last year, but again, Dabo's team was MUCH BETTER last season.
Forget about all those stats you read at ESPN and other sites about how they enter with the No 1 defense in this and that category. First, those numbers were compiled against a weak ACC schedule. Second, this team lost so much talent to the NFL a year ago it was never going to be as good defensively this season. Good? Yes. Great? Nope.
Nothing wrong with Trevor Lawrence's offense as we've seen all season, but LSU's is more explosive with Joe Burrow at the helm. And now that running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire says he's 100 percent and feeling the best he has all season, the Baton Rouge Bengals are going to test Clemson's defense like no one else has this year.
I hated the fact that this game was delayed a week, but LSU faithful loved it since it gave their running back an extra week to recover from a hamstring injury that limited him to two carries against Oklahoma in the Peach Bowl blowout. But Edwards-Helaire was playing his best ball of the season prior to getting hurt in the SEC Championship win against Georgia with 743 yards (6.9 ypc) and nine touchdowns in the previous six games and he enters this one with 1,304 yards (6.6 ypc) and 16 scores on the year.
Edwards-Helaire is also Burrow's safety valve out of the backfield with 50 catches. When Clemson drops 7 or 8 into coverage hoping to get consistent pressure without blitzing, Burrows has the ideal option to pick up easy yards.
Defensively LSU isn't Clemson's equal, but I love how Coach O's team played their best defense down the stretch holding Texas A&M, Georgia and Oklahoma to a combined 46 points.
In terms of intangibles certainly you've got to give the edge to Clemson's experience. But let's not discount the fact that LSU went into Atlanta and beat Georgia in its own backyard and the Bulldogs are better than Clemson defensively. Now they're practically playing a home game tonight in New Orleans. And while Clemson has feasted on a nothing-ACC schedule of victims all season, LSU is battle-tested team that's survived or thrived against the likes of Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia in SEC play and Texas and Oklahoma out of it.
296-233-15 NFL Roll
past six years combined
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
with NFL 15 Dimers past seven seasons
- including 4-1 last 5 Super Bowls -
Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009
15 Dime Releases
Al DeMarco's Rating System
Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.
I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.
I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.
Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.
And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:
Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig
Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.
A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.
Let me explain further...
Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.
Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers). You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.
Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.
This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.
Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.
Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?
Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.
Who is Al DeMarco?
Been there, done that, seen it all.
That pretty much sums up my 25+ years in this business!
25 years in a business that most guys are lucky to make it 25 months.
The secret to my success? To be honest, there is no one "secret," no magic elixir, but rather a commitment to winning which means a commitment to working 365 days a year.
Being a handicapper is not a part-time job. Now, those of you reading this, the gamblers of this world, I understand that you are not professional gamblers and obviously you do this on recreational basis and cannot devote your life to wagering. But that's what I'm here for; that's what you pay me for.
There are two types of handicappers in this business: The first are great salesmen who excel at separating you from the money in your wallet and could care less about picking winners. The second are guys who know how to make clients money by winning consistently over the long haul through effective money-management techniques and an intuitive sense of knowing when to press and go for the jugular with big plays - especially when your playing with your bookmaker's money.
Listen, in my 25 years in this business I've seen more scam artists and con men than you can believe. A few of these relics - the dinosaurs from the 800 phone room age - are still around trying to make a buck online. You know the type; they tell you something is "absolutely free" with the same conviction that makes you look twice when they claim the sky is blue.
Rest assured, what you see here at my site is what you get. My plays are ONLY available online. And these are the ONLY plays I've got each day. There is no "better" package available at a higher cost like so many other guys offer at their sites or by phone. What you see is what you get; end of story.
No one - and I mean NO ONE - wins every day in this business, and anyone who claims to is a LIAR. As I always tell my clients, I will go on streaks, both good and bad, just like the players and teams I analyze daily. But the key for me - and my customers - is that I expect to turn a net profit for them over the long term. And making money over the course of season or a year, etc., is what matters most.
A little bit more about me....
- I'm currently the COO and General Manager for the industry's largest group of subscriber-based information websites
- I hosted The Football Insiders NFL Pregame Show on FoxSports.com from 2007-14
- I was the featured NFL & College Football Analyst on Comcast SportsNet Chicago and SNY-New York in 2008-10 and on Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia in 2010-11
- I was a featured contributor at MSNBC.com
- I created, hosted and syndicated the national sports talk show The Friday Night Quarterback in 1990-91
- I created, published and edited the weekly football newsletter The Players Preference Playbook from 1991-96
- I was a Contributing Editor at the Sports and Gaming Newswire from 1991-96
- I was Managing Editor and News Director for the Sports Network Wire Service from 1984-89 where I coordinated the coverage of two Olympic games
Nice resume - and there's a lot more - but the past doesn't count in this business and that's why I laugh when I hear or read about a handicapper bragging about some contest they won 13 years ago. Who cares?
Enough about me because all that really matters is whether I can win more than I lose over the long haul. I'm not here to sell you anything; I'm here to make you money and no one is putting a gun to your head. The decision to let me help you is yours and yours alone.